By J. Randolph Evans

No one knows just how the current federal debt crisis is going to play
out. Anyone who says they do, probably knows the least.

The polling numbers for everyone involved are horrible. Sixty-seven
percent of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong
direction. Forty-eight percent of Americans disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s performance as President. Seventy-three percent
disapprove of the job Congress is doing. And, all of those numbers are
before another fifteen months of high unemployment.

Meanwhile, most 2012 GOP Presidential hopefuls are left watching
helplessly from the political sidelines. The GOP field struggles to be
relevant as the test of wills plays out between House Speaker John
Boehner, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and President Barack Obama.

Of those in the fray, President Obama clearly has the most to lose.
More often than not, it is the President who pays the political costs of
failure – especially when the economy flounders.

Yet, most incumbent Presidents sail toward re-nomination by their
political party even when things are not going so well. President Jimmy
Carter was re-nominated in 1980, only to lose to President Ronald
Reagan. And, President George Bush was re-nominated in 1992, only to
lose to President Bill Clinton. But it is only most incumbent
Presidents who get re-nominated, not every incumbent President.

Admittedly, most insiders expect that with $1 billion to spend, the
Obama re-nomination machine will be on cruise control until the
Republicans figure out who their nominee will be.

Maybe – maybe not.

So here is a little history. During the 1800s, it was actually common
for political parties to dump a sitting President as their party’s
nominee. The first was President John Tyler in 1844. Yes, he had not
been elected as President (moving up when President William Henry
Harrison died). But, he was the incumbent. That did not help him.
When his reelection rolled around, the Whigs dumped him and nominated
Henry Clay. The Democrats nominated President James Knox Polk (who won)
and President Tyler was out of a job.

It became a trend. The Whigs again dumped their incumbent President in
1852. When President Zachary Taylor died, President Millard Fillmore
moved up. When his reelection came along, the Whigs denied him the
party’s nomination and opted for Winfield Scott. He promptly lost to
President Franklin Pierce.

In 1856, Democrats refused to re-nominate incumbent President Pierce and
in 1860, Democrats did not even really consider incumbent President
James Buchanan.

Notably, political parties often had good reason to dump their nominees.
Presidents Pierce and Buchanan are consistently listed as two of the
worst Presidents in U. S. history. Indeed, as the Democratic nominee in
1852, President Pierce had no credible credentials to serve as
President. But he was bold. At his inauguration, President Franklin
Pierce (the youngest President at the time at age 48) chose to ‘affirm’
his oath of office (rather than swear to it) on a law book (rather than
the Bible). It was all downhill from there.

Sometimes, Presidents are dumped because they simply cannot get anything
done (through no fault of their own). As a result of a midterm election
in 1858, President Buchanan faced partisan gridlock. House Republicans
blocked President Buchanan at almost every turn. By the time the
Democratic convention rolled around, President Buchanan was not even a
factor (and as a result not re-nominated.)

But, what about the 20th century? Twice, incumbent Democratic Presidents
decided to abandon their bid for the Democratic nomination after the
handwriting became clear on the wall. In 1952, Democratic President
Harry Truman sought reelection. After losing the Democratic Primary in
New Hampshire, he abandoned his bid for the Democratic nomination.
Adlai Stevenson got the Democratic nomination and Republican President
Dwight Eisenhower won.

In 1968, Democratic President Lyndon Johnson ran for reelection. Once
again, New Hampshire proved to be pivotal. Initially, no Democrats in
1968 wanted to challenge President Johnson who was a sitting Democratic
President.

Only Senator Eugene McCarthy ran against President Johnson in 1968.
But, in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary, Senator McCarthy won 42%
of New Hampshire Democrats (against President Johnson’s 49%). It was
over. President Johnson shocked the world when he added this sentence
to the end of a speech shortly afterward: “I shall not seek, and I will
not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your
President.”

It actually was not his choice. His support collapsed, and he would not
have won re-nomination as the Democratic nominee even if he had stayed
in the contest. The rest is history. President Richard Nixon won the
Presidency.

Both Truman and Johnson confirm that when things start to falter for a
sitting President, things do move fast. So what does all this have to do
with 2012? Maybe nothing – maybe everything. Anyone seen Hillary
Clinton lately?