A predictable end to Georgia’s GOP Senate runoff

By: Randy Evans

No fight is worse than a family fight. In some part, it is because family members know the weaknesses and vulnerabilities of each other better than anyone else. And so, intraparty political fights are often the worst.

Probably no better illustration exists than the primary runoff election between incumbent Republican Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran and Tea Party challenger Chris McDaniel. By every definition, the primary runoff election was a political street fight of the worst kind – the kind where all of the rules get thrown out the window.

The Mississippi primary and primary runoff included a little bit of everything from break-ins to allegations of vote buying. Since Mississippi (like Georgia) is an open primary state, any voter, regardless of party affiliation, can cross over and vote in the other party’s primary. The net result is the opportunity for every kind of chicanery, real and imagined.

Even now, the legal proceedings and investigations continue long after the primary election runoff, which Sen. Cochran won. In fact, McDaniel has refused to concede, offered rewards for evidence of voter fraud and insisted on even more investigations. And still, Sen. Cochran faces a general election challenge in November.

The challenges of intra-political party fights manifest themselves in consequences that extend far beyond the outcome of a single election. In Mississippi, even with these challenges, Sen. Cochran should cruise to re-election in the fall. Mississippi is about as safe as a state can get for Republicans, even when the GOP house has been divided.

Georgia is different. While still comfortably red, the Republican margins of victory are not as great, and Democrats and pundits insist that the state is currently in a state of political transition. Deep party divisions, like those in Mississippi, are not so easily overcome in Georgia. It is why the late days of the GOP Georgia Senate primary have worried many.

Certainly, the Georgia GOP Senate primary has not included the theatrics of the Mississippi race with break-ins into assisted living facilities, or allegations of targeted efforts at convincing Democrats to cross over to affect the GOP primary election. And, the race has not taken on the national implications of being a test case of the power of the Tea Party to challenge GOP establishment candidates. But, as predicted here in the Evans Report, the GOP senatorial primary election between businessman David Perdue and Congressman Jack Kingston has definitely taken a turn for the ugly.

Each candidate has turned to a series of negative campaign advertisements aimed directly at inflicting what could be irreparable injury on the other. Oddly enough, they are in many ways reminiscent of some of the attack advertisements used in the GOP presidential primaries in 2012. Regardless, voters can expect Democratic senatorial nominee Michelle Nunn and/or her supporting super PACs to resurrect negative advertisements come October.

Oddly, dueling negative campaign advertisements more often than not depress voter turnout as voters conclude there are no good choices. Yet, with a July 22 primary runoff election, most expect voter turnout to already be depressed, if not downright embarrassing. How depressing voter turnout further helps either candidate is anyone’s guess.

So how did things get so nasty? Although David Perdue led all vote getters in the primary election with over 30 percent of the vote, early post-primary election polls showed Congressman Kingston building a comfortable double-digit lead. Indeed, within Republican circles, many started to talk as if the primary runoff election might be effectively over.

Undoubtedly, David Perdue’s team told him that if he wanted to win, he would need to do two things: write a big check and go negative. He did both. The results have been dramatic.

In more recent days, polls show the GOP Georgia Senate race tightening, in some polls to a virtual dead heat. It should surprise no one that this was enough to convince the Kingston team that it was time to take off the gloves.

So, the attack advertisements began. On the issues, the candidates actually differ little. Instead, the difference is about background.

David Perdue has positioned himself as the outsider ready to fix an out-of-touch Washington, D.C. Congressman Jack Kingston insists that he has the experience and background to make an immediate difference in the U.S. Senate.

With all that said, the bottom line is that the election is a mid-July runoff election between two candidates that differ little on the issues, and both of whom virtually all Georgia Republicans would find to be a better alternative than Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn.

The result is predictable: Expect an uneventful runoff election with very low voter turnout, to be decided by the candidate whose ground game gets the most supporters to the polls. In the end, this battle will undoubtedly turn out to be a rather meaningless blip on the Georgia political radar.

Meanwhile, the consultants will spend money on repetitive negative advertisements – making television and radio stations happy while actually hurting, not helping, their candidate’s chances to become the next U.S. senator from Georgia. Unlike Mississippi, the margins here are just too close to take those kinds of risks.

But then, again, it is how the consultant-driven political system works – even in Georgia elections. It is also why it was so predictable so early in the year and is now so predictable as July 22 comes.

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