By J. Randolph Evans – Already, people are talking about what went wrong for Democrats in the 2010 midterm elections and the elections have not even happened yet. Absent a dramatic shift in the political tides, there will be many explanations and most of them will be right.

Many Democrats will undoubtedly blame history and they will, in part, be right. Historically, the party in power in the White House does lose seats in the Congress during the election years when the President is not on the ballot. Typically, these losses are in the range of twenty seats or so. This could explain some of the losses.

Many commentators will credit the Tea Party and they will, in part, be right. No one can credibly ignore the huge impact that the Tea Party has on the 2010 elections. Incumbents have fallen; party structures have been changed; and the political landscape is now different.

Many historians will note that it is all about the swing of the political pendulum back from the left toward the middle and right, and they will, in part, be right. Polls confirm that Americans overwhelmingly believe that President Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi are just too liberal for the country. There is no one thing that leads voters to this conclusion. Instead, it is the accumulation of many things.

Many pollsters will insist that the economy doomed any hopes for Democratic success and they will, in part, be right. Voters do vote their pocketbook. Presidents Reagan and Clinton proved just how important the economy can be. President Reagan rode “stagflation” (high unemployment and high inflation) all the way to the White House. President Clinton did the same with one simple mantra – “it’s the economy stupid.”

It is a political lesson that gets taught every decade, but never seems to get completely learned.

Many Republicans will argue that they have earned the right to govern again and they will, in part, be right. As evidence, they will cite their steadfast opposition to the stimulus package, “cap and trade” legislation, and “Obamacare.” In addition, Republicans have offered a “Pledge To America” – a 20+ page booklet outlining the principles on which they would govern. While no “Contract With America,” it has stymied accusations that Republicans stand for nothing. The combination of solidarity of purpose with an actual written commitment to specific policies has separated them from the Congresses of the past.

Many political party organizers will point to the relative energy level of activists in the various political camps and they will, in part, be right. As illustrated by a question at a recent town hall meeting by an Obama supporter, President Obama’s supporters are simply exhausted by the endless need to defend the President and the Democratic Congress. Just one mega-battle, like healthcare, can exhaust even the most active supporters. Multiple mega-battles saps all the energy of supporters, and all of their reserve, and then some. Political exhaustion is the death knell for campaigns. Yet, on the other side, opponents of the President’s policies have been energized by the real possibility of, oddly enough, change on election day. The gap between the energy of these groups spells trouble at the polls.

Many in the Congress will blame the President’s staff for a litany of things and, they will, in part, be right. Indeed, die hard supporters will never consider the possibility that the message is wrong. Instead, the political woes of the moment must mean that the President and his staff failed to effectively deliver the message.

One after the other, mainstream media personalities have quizzed the President on whether he will now “fight back” in the final days leading up to the election. The truth is that he has been fighting all along. It is not a delivery or packaging issue. Saying the wrong things louder, or more passionately, never makes things better. Indeed, recent polls suggest that it, in fact, makes things worse. An entire summer proclaiming a recovery that never happened – that is a message problem.

Many inside the White House will blame the Congress, and they will, in part, be right. Democrats complain that the Congress has not done enough, notwithstanding overwhelming Democratic majorities in both the U. S. House and Senate, (indeed a filibuster proof majority for some period of time). Of course, Republicans complain that Democrats have done too much.

The one thing on which an overwhelming majority of Americans agree is that whatever the Congress is doing, it is doing poorly and literally making our citizenry poorer. Disapproval ratings have never been worse. When no one is happy about the job Congress is doing, bad things happen on election day – whether for the Democrats in 1994 or the Republicans in 2006.

So what happens when everyone is right – a tsunami.