By J. Randolph Evans – On Tuesday, November 6, 2012, Americans will decide who will serve as the President of the United States of America. As the last three elections in 2006, 2008, and 2010 prove, voters are not exactly shy about exercising the rights of “We The People” to decide who governs this country. 2012 will be no different.
The political landscape will be a little different than the last two Presidential elections. In 2004, President George W. Bush won reelection with the help of a Republican House and Senate. In 2008, President Barack Obama won with the help of a Democratic House and Senate. In 2012, the Congress will be split with Republicans controlling the House and Democrats controlling the Senate.
While the 270 Electoral votes needed to win the Presidency will not change, there will be a 16-vote swing in the way those votes are allocated among the states. Seven safe Democratic states will lose a total of eight Electoral votes because of reapportionment. Five safe Republican states (including Georgia) will gain eight Electoral votes. Interestingly, two swing states see their votes change. Florida picks up two Electoral votes while Ohio loses two.
Republican victories across the country on November 2, 2010, from state legislatures to the U.S. Congress, have triggered genuine concern among Democrats over President Obama’s re-electability. Those who have switched parties since the 2010 election have only fueled these worries.
To solve his re-electability problem, many believe the President must move toward the political center. (Indeed, some believe that his compromise on the extension of the Bush-era tax cuts was a clear signal of his intent to do so.) Yet, with each move toward the middle, the incumbent Democrat President risks a challenge from the left/liberal wing of the Democratic Party.
Among Republicans, the list of presidential contenders is long and getting longer. The political heavyweights include former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney; former Alaska governor Sarah Palin; former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee; and former Speaker of the U.S. House Newt Gingrich. Some, but not all, will step up to the plate. Certainly, most insiders would regard Mitt Romney as the candidate with the most money and infrastructure heading into the presidential primary season.
Beyond these candidates, there are many more. Some have made clear their intentions to take the next step. These include Indiana governor Mitch Daniels; former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty; South Dakota Senator John Thune, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum.
Others are clearly taking a long look at a potential Presidential bid. These include Mississippi governor Haley Barbour; Minnesota Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann; and Indiana Congressman Mike Pence.
Perennial candidate Ron Paul, Congressman from Texas, will likely run. His followers are loyal and his son (Rand Paul) is now a Senator from Kentucky.
Then, there are the self-described “dark horses.” Lead among them is popular Atlanta radio talk show host and former Senatorial candidate Herman Cain.
Of course, there are potentially entertaining candidates like Donald Trump.
In all, thirty people have been mentioned in one way or the other as potential candidates for the GOP Presidential nomination.
Over the course of this year, many of these folks will drop off the radar. Most expect the 2012 Presidential derby to begin in earnest around March of this year. Few have been willing to actually jump out in front of gubernatorial inaugurations around the country. But, as they wind down this month, it will be off to the races for the 2012 presidential election. To make the point, Barack Obama announced he was running for president on February 10, 2007.
With the first announcements, the pressure will only increase on every other candidate who is considering running for the presidency. By this summer, every real candidate will be in the race.
The first real test will be on August 13, 2011, at the Hilton Coliseum on the campus of Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa. Potential GOP Presidential contenders intent on competing in the first state in the GOP nomination process will enter the Ames Straw Poll. Most insiders view it as a test of strength heading into the Iowa caucuses, which are likely to be held on February 6, 2012.
By Labor Day, a handful of candidates will emerge with the fundraising and organizations to compete in the caucuses and primaries to come. By Christmas, every American will become intimately familiar with five or six Republicans as they trounce around in the snow of Iowa and New Hampshire.
Within ninety days or so afterward, Republicans will have chosen their candidate to face the Democratic presumptive nominee President Barack Obama on November 6, 2012. And so, the campaign begins.